Lessons of the Sigmoid Curve

One of my favorite guilty pleasure Blogs is Dumb Little Man (link to the right!). Recently DLM posted an interesting tid-bit on the Sigmoid Curve. Much like chaos theory, the Sigmoid Curve is a way of defining the natural ebb-and-flow of all things. As I read the article, The Lesson of the Sigmoid Curve, I began to think of the countless things in life that can be measured via the curve. Seasons, stages of life, one's career, the political landscape of our country, etc.

The Sigmoid Curve

Michael Miles, in his article, describes the stages of the curve, and the subsequent "S" shape it emulates. The first stage of the curve, the learning curve, is when the curve slowly begins to increase. This is a frustrating phase, because the upward-motion requires much hard work with seemingly-little immediate payoff.

The second stage, the Growth Phase, is when that hard work begins to bear some fruit. Times are good during this phase. All that hard work has paid off and things are going great. It's a period of prosperity and abundance. But we all know that all good things must eventually come to an end.

That leaves us with the decline phase. As the "S" begins to take a downward spiral, prosperous times become more scarce and hard work once again does not produce immediate results. It is at this time, Miles explains, that one should learn to recognize when their sigmoid curve is reaching decline, and use that as an opportunity to move to a new curve which is on the up-and-up. He writes, "Successful individuals and organizations are self-reflective and constantly monitor their own position on the Sigmoid curve. However, to be truly successful is to go even further – it is to jump off the current curve when it is nearing its peak and start on the bottom of another curve." So, essentially, curve-surfing is the secret to success.

That makes me think of the election and how, as we all know by now, change is the new big thing and we all want a piece of it. America's sigmoid curve is on the decline. I don't think that's hard to argue. Look at our economy, our unemployment rate, the war we aren't winning, and the state of our education system. No matter if you are Republican, Democrat, Green or none-of-the-above, I think we can all agree that we need a change. Its time for us to jump on a new curve. Our current curve is on the downward spiral and we need to recognize it, before it's too late. We only have a small window of opportunity for ditching our current curve and making home on a new one. That new curve has a name. I like to call it Barack Obama.

I'm jumping to the Obama curve on Nov 4th. I hope to see you there.